If you’ve watched March basketball long enough – and I’ve burned through a few decades of it from a seat in Rupp Arena and a recliner in Lexington – you know guards decide this month more than any fancy analytics do. That’s why Duke’s Sweet 16 matchup with St. John’s isn’t really about seeding, past banners, or who looked pretty blowing out Siena.
It’s about whether Jon Scheyer can get enough clean, composed play out of his backcourt against Rick Pitino’s hell‑bent pressure – and whether Caleb Foster can climb back from a busted foot fast enough to matter. Scheyer says Foster has an “outside chance” to return on Friday, which, considering a foot fracture and the initial “foreseeable future” diagnosis, is about as close to a basketball miracle as you’ll see this side of a Christian Laettner fadeaway.
Foster’s importance is pretty simple even if you don’t live on KenPom pages – he’s the guy who keeps Duke’s offense spaced and sane. At 8.5 points per game and just over 40% from three, he’s not the volume scorer that gets the one‑and‑done headlines, but he’s the guard who turns a decent possession into a good one by punishing a lazy closeout.
In Foster’s absence, the keys have gone to freshman Cayden Boozer, and the kid hasn’t exactly shrunk from the spotlight. He played all 40 minutes and dropped 16 points in Duke’s ACC Tournament title win over Virginia, then followed it up by averaging 14 points and 5 assists in the first two NCAA Tournament games.
Cayden Boozer, standing on his own merit, is a big point guard with excellent positional size at 6-foot-4 and a strong body, though he lacks ideal length or athleticism. He was ranked No. 23 by 247Sports in the 2025 class and is known for being a reliable decision-maker who distributes the ball well.
Most opponents tend to guard Cayden by daring him to shoot, going under ball-screens, and helping far off him when he's off the ball. However, he compensates by taking open threes to keep defenders honest and uses the space to get into the paint, where he's an efficient finisher.
Cayden also utilizes that space to make his passing reads easier, using his size to see over defenders or set the right angle on the ball screen. He has a knack for making winning plays, such as pulling down critical rebounds or finding run-out lay-ups.
Against St. John’s, Cayden Boozer faces the biggest challenge yet, as Pitino’s defense ranks as the nation’s eighth-best per KenPom.com, forcing turnovers on 19% of possessions. For Duke to advance, Cayden will need to handle the pressure from one of the best defensive teams and coaches.
Scheyer’s comments about Foster “trying to do the impossible” aren’t just coachspeak; they’re a window into the mentality you have to have this time of year. Players know there are only so many chances in life to chase an Elite Eight, and that clock doesn’t care whether your foot is at 70% or 90%.
If Foster does suit up, don’t expect 35 minutes of vintage form; the more realistic impact is 15 to 20 smart, low‑mistake minutes that calm Duke’s offense when the game starts to spin. Think of it like bringing in a veteran reliever in baseball who won’t overthrow but will just keep the ball over the plate and force the other team to earn everything.
From my perch in SEC country, watching two non‑Kentucky brands square off, I see a matchup that still teaches Big Blue Nation something important. You win in March with guards who can take a punch from pressure, make the simple play, and hit open shots when the ball finds them – exactly the traits Duke hopes to regain in full if Foster is cleared.
Adding to Duke's challenges, big man Patrick Ngongba II is also out with a foot injury, as confirmed by Coach Scheyer. Ngongba, averaging 10.7 points and six rebounds per game, has been sidelined since March 2, and his absence forces Duke to rely on a seven-man rotation.
Scheyer has expressed concern about the lack of depth and has been experimenting with lineups, including using Cameron Boozer more at the 5 position. This adjustment has opened up opportunities for second-chance points, as seen in their ACC Tournament win over Virginia where Duke secured 21 offensive rebounds.